14.07.2026
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A. Rublev vs A. Pellegrino Prediction — 15.07.2026

ATP - 16
A. Rublev - A. Pellegrino
ATP Bastad 1/8-finals
July 15, 2026 10:00
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A. Pellegrino flag
ATP - 155
A. Rublev

Player Overview

Andrey Rublev has faced a challenging stretch, marked by a career baseline win percentage of nearly 56% on hard surfaces. His current two-year trajectory shows a decline, with a recent form trend that is concerning. Rublev's serve has been a key asset, but it has not translated into success recently, as he grapples with consistency.

In his last five matches, Rublev has lost four, including a disappointing performance against Roman Safiullin at the ATP Wimbledon. With no wins in his last ten matches, he heads into the ATP Bastad looking to regain his footing. The pressure is on as he prepares to face Alessandro Pellegrino, a matchup that could either mark a turning point or further complicate his season.

Match results: A. Rublev

29 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon
A. Rublev
R. Safiullin
1 2
4 6
6 3
3 6
L
24 Jun 2026 Exhibition Boodles Challenge
A. Rublev
T. Kokkinakis
1 2
6 7
6 4
4 10
L
23 Jun 2026 Exhibition Boodles Challenge
A. Rublev
A. Shevchenko
2 1
6 7
6 4
10 3
W
16 Jun 2026 ATP Halle
A. Rublev
H. Hurkacz
0 2
3 6
2 6
L
31 May 2026 ATP French Open
J. Mensik
A. Rublev
3 2
6 3
4 6
2 6
6 3
L
29 May 2026 ATP French Open
N. Borges
A. Rublev
0 1
5 7
W
27 May 2026 ATP French Open
C. Ugo Carabelli
A. Rublev
1 2
1 6
6 1
3 6
W
25 May 2026 ATP French Open
I. Buse
A. Rublev
0 3
3 6
3 6
5 7
W
14 May 2026 ATP Rome
J. Sinner
A. Rublev
2 0
6 2
6 4
L
12 May 2026 ATP Rome
A. Rublev
N. Basilashvili
2 1
3 6
6 2
W
A. Pellegrino

Player Overview

Alessandro Pellegrino, currently navigating a mixed phase in his career, has a lower baseline win percentage but has shown flashes of potential, particularly on clay. His current form trend appears stable, yet results remain inconsistent. Pellegrino has demonstrated resilience, but his serve and return game will need to be sharp to challenge stronger opponents effectively.

Pellegrino arrives at this match with a recent win over N. Budkov Kjaer in ATP Bastad, but he also suffered a setback against R. Brancaccio in Trieste. With an even split in his last five matches, he must capitalize on Rublev's current struggles. Expectations are high for Pellegrino to leverage this opportunity, as a win could propel him into a more favorable position this tournament.

Match results: A. Pellegrino

14 Jul 2026 ATP Bastad
N. Budkov Kjaer
A. Pellegrino
0 2
3 6
2 6
W
8 Jul 2026 Trieste
A. Pellegrino
R. Brancaccio
1 2
6 3
4 6
3 6
L
7 Jul 2026 Trieste
A. Pellegrino
M. Alcala Gurri
2 0
6 3
6 4
W
24 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon
T. Boyer
A. Pellegrino
2 0
6 2
6 1
L
22 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon
J. Clarke
A. Pellegrino
1 2
6 2
4 6
W
6 Jun 2026 Perugia
D. Merida Aguilar
A. Pellegrino
2 1
6 3
5 7
6 3
L
5 Jun 2026 Perugia
A. Pellegrino
P. Basile
2 0
6 2
6 3
W
4 Jun 2026 Perugia
A. Pellegrino
R. Carballes Baena
2 1
4 6
7 5
6 3
W
2 Jun 2026 Perugia
A. Pellegrino
M. Kasnikowski
2 1
4 6
6 1
W
25 May 2026 ATP French Open
F. Cobolli
A. Pellegrino
2 0
6 4
6 3
L

Players Analysis

Andrey Rublev has had a challenging recent run, with a mixed record in his last ten matches, winning only four. His most recent matches include losses at Wimbledon and Halle, indicating a dip in form. In contrast, Alessandro Pellegrino has shown better form in his recent outings, winning six of his last ten matches, including a recent victory at ATP Bastad. Pellegrino's ability to perform well in Challenger events gives him a competitive edge, especially as he has been more consistent lately.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

Rublev's recent performance has seen him struggle to maintain a strong serve, which is critical on the hard courts of Bastad. He has averaged 1.4 games won per match, which is concerning. Pellegrino, however, has been more effective, averaging 1.4 games won and 1.1 games lost per match. The head-to-head record is currently non-existent, but given both players' recent forms, Pellegrino's consistency may play a significant role in this matchup.

A. Rublev — A. Pellegrino Prediction

Given the current forms and the recent performances of both players, Alessandro Pellegrino is slightly favored to win this match. Rublev's struggles with consistency and serve reliability could hinder his chances against a more stable Pellegrino.

  • Final score in sets: 2:1
  • Predicted winner of each set: Set 1: A. Pellegrino, Set 2: A. Rublev, Set 3: A. Pellegrino
  • Expected aces: 5
  • Double faults: 3
  • Break points: 4

Pellegrino's strategy will likely focus on exploiting Rublev's serve weaknesses, aiming to break early in the sets. Rublev, on the other hand, must find a way to regain his serve strength to stay competitive. The match could hinge on the first set, where establishing momentum will be crucial for both players.

3 Reasons Why A. Pellegrino Will Win

  • Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors A. Pellegrino 2:1 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
  • Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors A. Pellegrino.
  • Pressure Points. In recent matches, A. Pellegrino has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than A. Rublev, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
15.07.2026 10:00 ATP Bastad
A. Rublev 1 0 1 0
A. Pellegrino 2 1 0 1
57
32
43

Where to watch A. Rublev vs A. Pellegrino

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