10.07.2026
Reading time: 1 min

L. Nardi vs A. Guerrieri Prediction — 11.07.2026

L. Nardi flag
ATP - 151
L. Nardi - A. Guerrieri
Umag
July 11, 2026 17:00
Days
00
Hours
00
Minutes
00
Seconds
00
A. Guerrieri flag
ATP - 248
L. Nardi

Player Overview

Lorenzo Nardi, currently navigating a challenging period in his career, has a baseline win percentage hovering around 54% on hard courts. His recent trajectory suggests a declining trend, especially evident in his recent performance at Wimbledon, where he suffered a straight-sets loss against Otto Virtanen. Nardi's serve has shown flashes of potential, but inconsistency has marred his ability to capitalize on it, leaving him in search of his footing.

In his last five matches, Nardi has yet to secure a win, with losses against players like Riku Noguchi and Otto Virtanen. This streak highlights his ongoing struggles to find a rhythm, despite a solid victory against R. Bertola earlier in Nottingham. As he enters this match, the pressure is mounting; without a recent victory, he faces a critical juncture in his season, needing a strong performance to regain confidence.

Match results: L. Nardi

24 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon
L. Nardi
O. Virtanen
0 2
4 6
4 6
L
22 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon
R. Noguchi
L. Nardi
0 2
2 6
3 6
W
15 Jun 2026 Nottingham
L. Nardi
R. Bertola
1 0
6 3
W
14 Jun 2026 Nottingham
L. Nardi
G. Hussey
2 0
6 3
6 2
W
13 Jun 2026 Nottingham
L. Nardi
O. Weightman
2 1
3 6
6 3
6 4
W
10 Jun 2026 Ilkley
L. Nardi
J. Fearnley
1 2
6 4
0 6
3 6
L
4 Jun 2026 Perugia
L. Nardi
R. Bertola
1 2
2 6
6 4
3 6
L
2 Jun 2026 Perugia
L. Nardi
O. Roca Batalla
1 0
6 4
W
29 May 2026 Chisinau
G. A. Olivieri
L. Nardi
2 1
6 0
3 6
L
27 May 2026 Chisinau
L. Giustino
L. Nardi
0 2
4 6
4 6
W
A. Guerrieri

Player Overview

Andrea Guerrieri's game has been marked by inconsistency, with a career baseline win percentage close to 52% on hard courts. His current two-year trajectory reflects a stable yet stagnant performance, as he has been unable to break through against higher-ranked opponents. Guerrieri's recent Elo rating indicates he remains in the lower tier of the competitive landscape, which has influenced his match outcomes.

Match results: A. Guerrieri

9 Jul 2026 Trieste
A. Guerrieri
H. Dellien
0 2
1 6
2 6
L
7 Jul 2026 Trieste
A. Guerrieri
O. Roca Batalla
2 0
6 4
6 4
W
24 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon
A. Guerrieri
K. Jacquet
0 1
4 6
L
22 Jun 2026 ATP Wimbledon
A. Guerrieri
D. Goffin
2 1
3 6
7 5
6 2
W
15 Jun 2026 Dublin (Ireland) - Qualification
A. Guerrieri
C. Broom
0 2
1 6
4 6
L
14 Jun 2026 Dublin (Ireland) - Qualification
A. Guerrieri
F. Romano
2 0
6 2
6 2
W
12 Jun 2026 Cattolica (Italy) - Qualification
F. Forti
A. Guerrieri
1 0
6 4
L
10 Jun 2026 Cattolica (Italy) - Qualification
A. Vasilev
A. Guerrieri
0 1
5 7
W
8 Jun 2026 Cattolica (Italy) - Qualification
A. Guerrieri
D. Svrcina
2 1
6 3
3 6
6 4
W
22 May 2026 Cervia (Italy) - Qualification
A. Guerrieri
M. Alcala Gurri
0 2
5 7
5 7
L

Players Analysis

L. Nardi has shown a mixed performance recently, with a record of 4 wins and 6 losses in his last 10 matches. His recent matches include a semi-final loss at the ATP Wimbledon, where he was defeated by O. Virtanen. In contrast, A. Guerrieri has had a slightly better recent form, winning 5 out of his last 10 matches, including a quarter-final victory against D. Goffin at the ATP Wimbledon. This suggests that Guerrieri may have a slight edge in terms of current form.

Statistical Analysis & Influencing Factors

In terms of overall performance, L. Nardi has scored 13 games in his last 10 matches, averaging 1.3 games per match, while conceding 9 games, averaging 0.9 games against per match. A. Guerrieri, on the other hand, has scored 9 games and conceded 10, averaging 0.9 games scored and 1.0 games against per match. This indicates that Nardi has been slightly more effective in scoring, but Guerrieri has been more consistent in his recent matchups.

L. Nardi — A. Guerrieri Prediction

Considering the recent forms and head-to-head statistics, L. Nardi is predicted to win this match against A. Guerrieri. The match is expected to be competitive, with Nardi likely to take the first set based on his recent scoring ability. However, Guerrieri's consistency may allow him to take a set as well.

  • Final score in sets: 2:1
  • Predicted winner of each set: 1st set: L. Nardi, 2nd set: A. Guerrieri, 3rd set: L. Nardi
  • Expected aces: 5
  • Double faults: 2
  • Break points: 4

In terms of tactics, L. Nardi may focus on aggressive baseline play to capitalize on Guerrieri's defensive style. Guerrieri, on the other hand, will likely aim to extend rallies and exploit any weaknesses in Nardi's serve. The match could hinge on Nardi's ability to maintain his serve under pressure.

3 Reasons Why L. Nardi Will Win

  • Projected Sets Edge. The numeric forecast favors L. Nardi 2:1 in sets, reflecting a confident path to the win.
  • Match Context Edge. A combination of form, experience and tournament context favors L. Nardi.
  • Pressure Points. In recent matches, L. Nardi has looked slightly sharper in deciding games and late-set scenarios than A. Guerrieri, which can swing tight scorelines.
Match Prediction
11.07.2026 17:00 Umag
L. Nardi 2 1 0 1
A. Guerrieri 1 0 1 0
53
23
42

Where to watch L. Nardi vs A. Guerrieri

  • ATP Tour Official Website - Visit the official ATP Tour website for live scores, match schedules, and broadcast information.
  • Tennis TV - Official streaming service for ATP matches, including live and on-demand coverage.
  • ESPN Tennis - Check ESPN for broadcast details and live coverage of ATP events.
  • Eurosport - Eurosport provides coverage of ATP tournaments, including match schedules and live streaming options.
  • Official Umag Tournament Page - Visit the official website of the Umag tournament for updates, schedules, and broadcast information.